View Poll Results: What do you choose based on the above info?

Voters
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  • Stay with my original choice. I'm not fickle!

    8 29.63%
  • Choose the remaining unopened door. So what if I'm fickle?

    15 55.56%
  • Take the $100 cash and run - It's a sure thing, no mess.

    2 7.41%
  • Take the goats.....I like goats!

    2 7.41%
Results 1 to 2 of 2
  1. #1
    Lurker
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    Ashland, Oregon, USA
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    You are on a game show and the grand prize is $1,000,000 cash and it is behind either door number one, two or three. You choose one of the three doors, but before your chosen door is opened, the host (as he always does on this show) opens one of the remaining two doors to show you and the audience that it contains four or five pretty white purebred goats valued at $2,000 (and definitely NOT the $1,000,000). The host then gives you the opportunity to keep your original door choice, choose one of the other two doors, or walk away with $100 cash in hand. Which do you choose and why? (If you already know this conundrum please hold back and let the uninitiated puzzle it out rather than solving it for them. Thanks!)

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  3. #2
    2 Star Lounger
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Norwich, England
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    This is a famous and particularly tricky probability problem. For those who don't know the answer, or who dispute it, one approach is to write a computer program which simulates the scenario and evaluates the approximate chances of winning the big prize with each policy. By the way, there's an extensive Wikipedia article about this (search for Monty Hall Problem) but it obviously gives the answer away.

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