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  1. #1
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    Windows 10 Subscriptions aren't happening

    Well, here you go, another look into the future, but this time without the doom and gloom and the conspiracy theories...

    http://www.zdnet.com/article/windows...ing-heres-why/


    In fact, this has a bit more substance than that of the usual harbingers and doom and gloom, but just a tiny bit. However, I am seriously annoyed by the absolute lack of substance of what I read regarding Windows subscription based revenue models - not that Microsoft wouldn't do it, oh they could absolutely do it, but I haven't yet been able to see anyone making a good case of it, other than spouting hate at MS. Hate and contempt are never good reasons. Really.

    So, here is an opposing view. Just because.
    Rui
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    Rui, I'm not a conspiracy theorist. I don't see a conspiracy, or some evil plan to take over the world. SaaS is a valid business model and it's one that Microsoft has been involved in for a very long time. This isn't about gouging the public. It's about establishing a new way of doing things. SaaS has always been an attractive model for a software company - how the customer pays for that is largely a separate issue.

    The article says:
    I'm not even sure how a Windows 10 subscription for consumers and small businesses would work. What features in the operating system would Microsoft charge extra for? I've asked that question of people who are convinced that Microsoft has an evil master plan to soak its customers with subscription fees, and I have yet to hear an answer that makes sense.
    Ten years ago, there was no Office365 and few then could have predicted it. Yet it's now a reality and it's not a stretch to imagine that in a few years the (home) desktop version of office could be history. Two years ago, there were few that could have predicted that we would be seeing a version of Windows where automatic updates could not be turned off (home version). OneDrive is a default install and we are starting to see apps that require it to run.

    It's not hard to see how the retail and OEM sale of Windows could be replaced by a free install with a modest yearly subscription fee. Office365 (if you add in the value of the extra seats and the OneDrive space) is now arguably cheaper than buying it off the shelf. In three years, it's possible that you will pay a yearly subscription for Windows365 that will include the OS, Office, and OneDrive in a single package.

    No one can predict for sure what will happen, particularly give that MS has started down this path before but were too far ahead of technology to make it work. Internet Explorer started being built into the OS around 1995. MS was looking at a future OS that was built around a web browser and programs would be web enabled and/or web based. Active directory and domains were a part of that concept when WinNT was introduced. That was also a time when thin clients and distributed computing were the future.

    P.S. Businesses who want/need a different delivery model have always been a separate market. But they are already involved with a subscription model because they have contracts that include support and product.
    Graham Smith
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    "For every expert there is an equal and opposite expert.", Arthur C. Clarke (1917 - 2008)

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    Silver Lounger lumpy95's Avatar
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    Thanks for the opposing view ruirib. We can only hope that this view is the correct one but until MS makes some sort of decision ( although they can change it at any time ), we are still in limbo.

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    WS Lounge VIP access-mdb's Avatar
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    But Lumpy, surely that's what Rui is saying and Ed Bott as well. No decision has been made, so all the speculation (a lot of which is just clickbait followed by people believing it) is just that, speculation. Now if someone can point to a definitive statement....

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    Quote Originally Posted by gsmith-plm View Post
    Rui, I'm not a conspiracy theorist. I don't see a conspiracy, or some evil plan to take over the world. SaaS is a valid business model and it's one that Microsoft has been involved in for a very long time. This isn't about gouging the public. It's about establishing a new way of doing things. SaaS has always been an attractive model for a software company - how the customer pays for that is largely a separate issue.

    The article says:


    Ten years ago, there was no Office365 and few then could have predicted it. Yet it's now a reality and it's not a stretch to imagine that in a few years the (home) desktop version of office could be history. Two years ago, there were few that could have predicted that we would be seeing a version of Windows where automatic updates could not be turned off (home version). OneDrive is a default install and we are starting to see apps that require it to run.

    It's not hard to see how the retail and OEM sale of Windows could be replaced by a free install with a modest yearly subscription fee. Office365 (if you add in the value of the extra seats and the OneDrive space) is now arguably cheaper than buying it off the shelf. In three years, it's possible that you will pay a yearly subscription for Windows365 that will include the OS, Office, and OneDrive in a single package.

    No one can predict for sure what will happen, particularly give that MS has started down this path before but were too far ahead of technology to make it work. Internet Explorer started being built into the OS around 1995. MS was looking at a future OS that was built around a web browser and programs would be web enabled and/or web based. Active directory and domains were a part of that concept when WinNT was introduced. That was also a time when thin clients and distributed computing were the future.

    P.S. Businesses who want/need a different delivery model have always been a separate market. But they are already involved with a subscription model because they have contracts that include support and product.
    Graham,

    I don't really know what is going to happen. I wouldn't find it out of character for Microsoft to do it, as I said in my opening post. I do think, however, that there are good reasons for them not to do it, and I think the article covers a few.
    I think the case for business subscriptions (which, in fact, already exist with Volume Licensing, Action Packs and the link) is much easier to implement, than with users, especially with an OS meant to be as widely installed as possible.

    In any case, my point is that all these conjectures, about the inevitability of such a model or the idea that they will never happen, are nothing but more or less informed speculation. I guess columnists and magazines need to put out reading material to meet deadlines and such and the subject is a magnet for passionate opinions, so I am sure we will see a lot more of it.
    Rui
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    Quote Originally Posted by access-mdb View Post
    But Lumpy, surely that's what Rui is saying and Ed Bott as well. No decision has been made, so all the speculation (a lot of which is just clickbait followed by people believing it) is just that, speculation. Now if someone can point to a definitive statement....
    Yep, that is my point.
    Rui
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    Silver Lounger lumpy95's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by access-mdb View Post
    But Lumpy, surely that's what Rui is saying and Ed Bott as well. No decision has been made, so all the speculation (a lot of which is just clickbait followed by people believing it) is just that, speculation. Now if someone can point to a definitive statement....
    I agree. Just pointing out that the speculation on both sides of the coin are just that, speculation until MS announces something. But MS's aggressive tactics with W10 have led to much distrust as to the end results so that just fuels the fire for speculation both ways.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lumpy95 View Post
    I agree. Just pointing out that the speculation on both sides of the coin are just that, speculation until MS announces something. But MS's aggressive tactics with W10 have led to much distrust as to the end results so that just fuels the fire for speculation both ways.
    I actually disagree with your assessment and I have already wrote about what I think is the reason for MS's agressiveness - market share and associated developer appeal. Without market share, there is no developer appeal. The more the number of devices running Windows 10, the more a better case can be made by Microsoft to attract developers to its fold. Technically, the movement has been made in the same direction, with Universal apps being promoted, to ensure much less effort to develop for all the Windows 10 based devices, whether those devices are running are Windows running computers, tablets, phones or gaming consoles. In the same direction, efforts have been made to make it easier for developers to migrate their apps from other platforms, to Windows.

    Today's battles in the software arena are ecosystem battles. Microsoft is still struggling to make Windows competitive, market share and appeal wise, with Android and iOS.
    Rui
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    Super Moderator CLiNT's Avatar
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    A subscription fee to run an operating system? Never going to happen.
    Now a subscription fee for apps and services, absolutely, I have no doubt whatsoever about this happening.
    DRIVE IMAGING
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    WS Lounge VIP mrjimphelps's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gsmith-plm View Post
    Internet Explorer started being built into the OS around 1995. MS was looking at a future OS that was built around a web browser and programs would be web enabled and/or web based. Active directory and domains were a part of that concept when WinNT was introduced. That was also a time when thin clients and distributed computing were the future.
    IE4 was the first version of IE which was hardcoded into the OS, and the reason Microsoft hardcoded it into the OS was so that it wouldn't be a separate product. By doing it that way, they could kill Netscape without being accused of "dumping" IE on the market for free.

    So, keeping in mind the aggressive tactics which Microsoft has employed in the past (the IE4 case being just one example), I wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft tries to convert Windows to a subscription model.
    Last edited by mrjimphelps; 2016-02-09 at 13:58.

  11. #11
    5 Star Lounger RussB's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CLiNT View Post
    A subscription fee to run an operating system? Never going to happen.
    Now a subscription fee for apps and services, absolutely, I have no doubt whatsoever about this happening.
    Exactly.
    Now couple this with the fact that Microsoft has announced that WX is going to be the last version of Windows with only "Updates (Service)" for the future and you can see the answer rather clearly.

    The way I see it, subscriptions will give Microsoft the best revenue income with the fewest resources thus improved productivity.
    No hate here, just common sense. ;-)
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    Super Moderator CLiNT's Avatar
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    Now couple this with the fact that Microsoft has announced that WX is going to be the last version of Windows with only "Updates (Service)" for the future and you can see the answer rather clearly.
    That remains to be seen. In fact it's far more likely WX will be renamed in the future, despite what MS is currently saying now.
    MS has taken so many different directions and done so many U turns in it's history that it remains difficult to predict much of anything.
    ...Except that there WILL be an OS available, and OFFICE to run it on.
    Last edited by CLiNT; 2016-02-15 at 17:59.
    DRIVE IMAGING
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    5 Star Lounger RussB's Avatar
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    ...Except that there WILL be an OS available, and OFFICE to run it on.
    Maybe, maybe not. With 'OFFICE' moving into the clouds all one needs an OS to do is access the cloud.
    Do you "Believe"? Do you vote? Please Read:
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