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  1. #1
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    MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS

    I'm looking for recommendations for Monte Carlo Simulation software. To be used for pari-mutual racing analysis.

    Paul Burns

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    Re: MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS

    Hi:
    Unless you have need complex queueing and/or flow models with lots of hierachical relationships and branching, building your own System in EXCEL(with VBA) has always been the best bet for me. At least, this is where I would start (maybe you have done this already). The process of building a simulation model (or having one built to your specs in stages) has the added benefit of helping you to define what it is that you really want. Guaranteed that this process will always advance your thinking more than buying OTS software that requires you to transform your thinking into a set of parameters and inputs that may not compare well with your experience. It might cost you a little more in terms of your time (but it may not considering the learning curve for using the canned software) but it is always worth the investment.
    Stephen Stollmack
    sstollma@toast.net sstollnack@email20.uophx.edu

  3. #3
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    Re: MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS

    People at the company where I work use Crystal Ball from Decisioneering. I haven't used it myself, but I've heard good reports.

  4. #4
    5 Star Lounger jujuraf's Avatar
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    Re: MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS

    Did you ever find a good monte carlo program? <img src=/S/crossfingers.gif border=0 alt=crossfingers width=17 height=16> I too am in need of one for a very serious financial app I'm getting involved with. I am quite experienced in VBA but know zip about financial stuff (the other person working on the tool is the finance whiz). The types of things that are needed in this project are (in his opinion) too complex for Excel formulas. We need to do a lot of on-the-fly scenarios. I have enough to do at the moment with the tool than write the finance engine. I only found two packages one of which only allowed 30 licenses and the other wasn't powerful enough.

    Deb

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    WS Lounge VIP sdckapr's Avatar
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    Re: MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS

    I have a hard time believing there is a project "too complex for excel formulas" considering the scope I have seen with the formulas directly as well as what is possible with user-defined functions!

    Steve

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    5 Star Lounger jujuraf's Avatar
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    Re: MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS

    So I guess the answer is NO there aren't any good monte carlo simulators out there that don't cost $$$ and require licenses. In our case, yes indeed the formulas aren't enough and don't offer the type of flexibility we need. I can do it all in VBA but have lots more to deal with in this project than the monte carlo engine, I'd prefer to spend my time elsewhere.

    <rant=ON>
    After working on several very large Excel VBA projects (20,000+ lines of code) over the last 3 years I want to duplicate one particular tool in VB.Net and I'm sick and tired of dealing with Excel bugs and crashes <img src=/S/puke.gif border=0 alt=puke width=60 height=15> and having to make one set of code work with three versions of Excel. It's hell! <img src=/S/hairout.gif border=0 alt=hairout width=31 height=23> Each time I open my workbook I wonder if this is the time it'll fail to open with some internal garbage error or even better, when I try and save it, it gags with 'file not saved' error. You never know when these will happen and there's nothing you can do about it. I'm sure the internals of Excel have band-aids dating back to 1985 or earlier. It just isn't stable enough in my opinion for any large professional project. I still get the occasional user (of my tools) that run imto errors I can't duplicate; maybe one of of ten users can't open it or sees other errors, and I can't figure out why with the same version of Excel. I never had this many problems with pure C++ Windows programs.

    I'm sure VB.Net has its own problems too but I'm just relieved to be able to write and test the code once not three times (xl97, xl2k, xlXP).
    <rant=OFF>

    Thnx, Deb <img src=/S/smile.gif border=0 alt=smile width=15 height=15>

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