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  1. #1
    2 Star Lounger
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    projecting future from past information (office 2003)

    Big HELLO to all in the know,
    Is there any built in formula available to take data from past performance ((ie) results of performance on a particular subject for the last three quarters) and project the results for the 4th if all else remains the same?
    Thanks in advance for all the help

  2. #2
    3 Star Lounger Jim Cone's Avatar
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    Re: projecting future from past information (office 2003)

    with your data in a column
    select the data
    right-click the fill handle at the bottom right corner of the selection
    drag down for the number of periods you need
    when you let up on the right button, a pop-up menu appears
    choose "linear trend" or "growth trend"
    be very skeptical

    Jim Cone
    San Francisco, CA

  3. #3
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    Re: projecting future from past information (office 2003)

    I'd expand on the skeptical comment

    Almost all quarterly based data exhibits a seasonal trend - peaking in one quarter, and having reasons for being lower in others. Any projection based on a fraction of a year is likely to be way-way off for this reason. e.g. a retailer could not project a Christmas volume based on the volume of the other three preceding quarters.

    If you have data going back to last year - you can do much better by consdering specific methods reflecting seasonality.
    e.g. project fourth quarter by changing the previous fourth quarter by the amount the other quarters have changed.

    All methods require you to have knowledge of 'special' factors, and to exercise judgement in considering the results <img src=/S/grin.gif border=0 alt=grin width=15 height=15>.

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